11 games to go.

[pershoreharrier]

We have 11 games left to complete our first season in NLN. For much of the season we have been in top 5 with occasional thoughts that we might catch Fylde and win the title.

Realistically I think winning the title is out of our reach so we have to view the opportunity of finishing in the top 5 and at least get a chance of promotion through the play-offs.

Our recent home form has been stunning and has clearly kept us in contention whilst our away form is clearly a big disappointment and whilst we have a habit of winning at home we have the balancing habit of losing away.

It all boils down to we are averaging 1.5 points per game.

Of our remaining games 6 are away and 5 are at home. Our current form says we will add a further 15 points to our total but will the be enough to secure a play-off spot. Personally I think it is unlikely and we could find ourselves outside the play-offs which based on our season would be a huge disappointment.

Other teams around us are picking up momentum and we are seemingly stuck.

Views ???

[Phil]

I think this calls for a poll Keith

[redandwhitemike]

Not making the play offs - ''a huge disappointment...........''

Mega understatement IMO.

Inconceivable that a bunch part timers could do better than a full time out fit.

As it happens I think Harriers will make the play offs - we are too good a footballing side not too.

And who knows, IF our manager can come up with a 'goal machine ' Harriers could even take the second spot, but without adding to the squad I have serious doubts that will happen.

All to play for - starting at Stalybridge

COYR

[HarrierN2]

If we beat Stalybridge on Tuesday, getting an away win and establish a 7 point play-off cushion, I think we'll make the play-offs.

As someone else said, I also think the impossibility of catching Fylde will help us mount a stronger play-off push. We'll need that striker in though if we're going to have any chance of getting over the line and being promoted.

[pershoreharrier]

Stalybridge surely MUST be the turning point in our away form. Stalybridge have won 2 - drawn 1 and lost 9 at home and really we must come away with a point or three from this game.

Frankly I do not think we will see a new signing that is going to significantly add to our chances of finishing in the play-offs
and for one reason or another the undertaking of giving the management team £10K to assist in the promotion push will not happen this season. Interestingly other teams around us managed to strengthen we just could not find the right player.

[garthrockett]

At this stage of our poor away run the management simply need to look at the big picture.
Points not performance are all-important now: forget the pretty stuff and just ensure we are hard to break down away from home, while we continue express the total football policy at Aggy.

I don't pin too much hope on this fabled 'unknown striker' , as if he does appear all the pressure will be on the new guy to fit-in instantly, and score at least 5 goals in the next ten games.

I'd love to be wrong but it just ain't going to happen.

[Medley's Magic]

OK boring lunchtime so had, for what it is worth, a look over the previous 5 seasons in this division –

The NN champions have averaged 90.8pts (although slightly skewed by Chester’s 107pts in 12/13 – taking them out reduces the average to 86.75pts)

Runners up have averaged 83pts

And 5th place have averaged 73.2pts

So we need win every game to have a chance of winning it! 8 wins from 11 games for a shot at 2nd place and 5 wins for 5th. Personally I think we may need more than 73pts to get 5th this year. 77pts should do it so 6 wins from 11.
Play offs should be with our reach but think the away form will do for us when we get there.

[pricey5]

We play 3 of the bottom 4 away from home so surely our away form must start to improve at some point, hopefully from tomorrow.

I think 76pts will be enough for the play-offs, that would mean Stockport or Darlo winning at least 7 of their final 10 games, a tough ask when there are still so many in with a shout of making the play-offs and taking points off each other.

We probably need 5/6 wins for the play-offs and 8 wins to finish 2nd.

[Gezzie]

Without a proper centre forward/striker we'll find ourselves outside the play-offs. We lose away from home 1-0 and are unable to do anyhting about it.
We play some scintillating football at home up to the penalty box and sometimes we mange to do something in the box. Too often it fizzles out to nothing.
We wouldn't be in this position if we'd had a competent striker all season.

[garthrockett]

We wouldn't be in this position if we'd had a competent striker all season.

I'd qualify that more as a "competent striker away from home all season"

We are the best home record in the league, only three teams have scored more and we've conceded just 10 goals- the best defensive record.

away we are 10th best. We have scored 20; but almost half the goals (9) have been in two games (Curzon and Alfreton) - ignore the 6 goals versus Curzon and we have potted just 14 in 14 games- the same as Telford and Bradford PA!

Interestingly though we have the 4th best away defence.

As discussed just one little piece of the jigsaw away from promotion.......the ability -by anyone- to nab a goal away from home and then hang onto the lead.

Life is so simple sometimes........

[redandwhitemike]

We wouldn't be in this position if we'd had a competent striker all season.

I'd qualify that more as a "competent striker away from home all season"

We are the best home record in the league, only three teams have scored more and we've conceded just 10 goals- the best defensive record.

away we are 10th best. We have scored 20; but almost half the goals (9) have been in two games (Curzon and Alfreton) - ignore the 6 goals versus Curzon and we have potted just 14 in 14 games- the same as Telford and Bradford PA!

Interestingly though we have the 4th best away defence.

As discussed just one little piece of the jigsaw away from promotion.......the ability -by anyone- to nab a goal away from home and then hang onto the lead.

Life is so simple sometimes........

Very interesting analysis

I would qualify your qualification by saying the original statement is correct because the reversals and dropped points at home probably wouldn't have happened - Chorley, Brackley , FC Man, sides we battered but ultimately lost to because we couldn't score.

Those eight points would make a huge difference - so yes I think the original statement is accurate.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

But then again that is the job of management - to have competent players in all departments.

[Cal's Spongebag]

This is my ten minute analysis.

Methodology. For each team calculate 'form' i.e. average number of points achieved in the last 6 home and 6 away games. Apply to the remaining games, and total it up.

Final Standings.

Fylde 89.1

Salford 79.8
Kiddy 78.0
Chorley 74.9
Stockport 74.2

Halifax 74.0 (unlucky - miss out on play offs by 0.2 of a point)
Darlo 67.5
Brackley 66.5
Tamworth 64.5

* Quality of the outstanding teams to be played not taken into account. (I reckon Harriers have an easy run in apart from Fylde and Halifax) If I have time I may tweak it to take that into account.
**Analysis may very well (and probably does) contain errors so don't blame me if you rely on it and do your dough at William Hill.

[Harriers77]

If we beat Stalybridge on Tuesday, getting an away win and establish a 7 point play-off cushion, I think we'll make the play-offs.

As someone else said, I also think the impossibility of catching Fylde will help us mount a stronger play-off push. We'll need that striker in though if we're going to have any chance of getting over the line and being promoted.

I am hearing whispers we are chasing Ironside from nuneaton, had a scout on their forums and his contract is up at the end of the season

[Phil]

If we beat Stalybridge on Tuesday, getting an away win and establish a 7 point play-off cushion, I think we'll make the play-offs.

As someone else said, I also think the impossibility of catching Fylde will help us mount a stronger play-off push. We'll need that striker in though if we're going to have any chance of getting over the line and being promoted.

I am hearing whispers we are chasing Ironside from nuneaton, had a scout on their forums and his contract is up at the end of the season

http://www.nuneatontownfc.com/news/boro-building-negotiations-start-on-new-deals-for--1762887.html

[redandwhitemike]

Sounds like the type who might do a job - scored 17 goals in an average NN side - like to think he could score at a better ratio in a better team.

Mustn't get the juices flowing too early or expectations built up too high - but at 23 years old he fits the criteria.

And he has experience at this level.